Football Dutching Strategy
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Dutching the score Betting on the correct score has famously become one of the most exciting football betting markets mainly due to the high odds. It is generally considered as a hard to master market, due to the somewhat higher vig and the volatility of possible results. Dutching is a betting strategy that involves placing bets on all selections within a market, so that the returns are the same no matter the outcome. It’s similar to traditional matched betting, but with one key difference; no lay bets are placed. Instead, all selections are covered with back bets, usually at. Mar 02, 2021 Football Dutching System – Method 1 Video 3 (12 mins) This video covers the range of options that you have about cashing-out for a profit. It also details what steps you should take if it looks as if the bet might result in a loss. Football Dutching System – Method 1 Video 4 (35 mins) Coming soon. Dutching is sharing the risk of losing across a number of runners by backing more than one selection in a race or event. One needs to calculate the correct stake to place on each selection so that the return is the same if any of them wins. If you're interested in the calculations around Arbitrage Dutching - when the% odds add up to less than 100 there is an Arbitrage Dutching opportunity. To find the% odds of a bet, you divide 100 by the odds (e.g.% odds of 2.0 is 100/2 = 50%) So the above example 2.0 = 50% (100/2) and 2.17 = 46.08% (100/2.17).
Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy
Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.
They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.
Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.
When is the best time to lay the correct score?
Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.
There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.
Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.
One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.
Football Dutching Strategy Against
Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.
Teams that generally score/Opposition stats– This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.
Game Tempo –Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.
- Is the leading team looking to counter?
- Are they wasting time using stalling tactics?
- Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity?
- Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?
Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy
Example
Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.
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Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.
It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.
Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50.
I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half. The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.
This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.
Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.
Resources
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What is Dutch Betting.According to Wikipedia Dutching is sharing the risk of losing across a number of runners by backing more than one selection in a race or event. One needs to calculate the correct stake to place on each selection so that the return is the same if any of them wins. Although not foolproof, there have been successful bettors throughout history who have applied this system. The strategy can pay dividends when successfully reduce the potential winners of an event to a select few from the field. We know around the world the favourite wins around 30 to 35% of all races, followed by 2nd Fav at 21%, and 3rd fav at 14.5% so these three horses win 68.5% of all races. Now of course in some races the fav will be too short to dutch and they also have a higher win percentage rate, so our 68.5% is skewed abit, however we know the top 3 in the betting are well worth dutching, if the fave is at odds of 2.50 or better. Why 2.50, because it stops the invest of the dutch from being too high. And if you lose the dutch, your loses can climb fast. Dutching can also be used to reduce the price of the commission you would pay at a betting exchange by dutching at two bookmakers (normally Asian style) instead The Creator of the Dutch Betting Method.It is thought the strategy behind Dutching was originally conceived and employed by Arthur Flegenheimer (also known as Dutch Schultz) alongside various rackets he had running at the racetrack. The system has since taken his name. For more on this man it makes great reading and has infact become a few movies. Several actors have portrayed Dutch Schultz in film and television: Vic Morrow in Portrait of a Mobster (1961), Vincent Gardenia in Mad Dog Coll (1961), James Remar in The Cotton Club (1984), Dustin Hoffman in Billy Bathgate (1991), and Tim Roth in Hoodlum (1997). On television, in the 1959 The Untouchables episode 'The Dutch Schultz Story', Schultz was played by Lawrence Dobkin. In the 1993-1994 series The Untouchables, he was portrayed by Si Osborne in the 1993 episode 'Attack on New York' He was 34 years old when he died from complications of a gunshot wound. Though he was estimated to be worth $7 million when he died, no trace of the money was ever found. That's the history lesson, now how can you benefit from this very popular approach?Whether it is racing (horses and dogs) of sports dutch methods can be a great betting tool. In football Correct Score is often a great market to use dutching. Let's look at this Liverpool V Man U match. Liverpool is hot fav (record winning streak). In Match Odds playing 1.42 to win. You can do a dutch bet on the Correct Score Market and get 2.15 odds. And all you are doing differently is that you are not allowing for Liverpool to score 3 goals, more is OK. So how do you do that? With the dutch bet of 4 outcomes. 1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 and Any other home score winning. We put 10 as our profit target, and we can cover all four scenero, for 10.65, to make the 10.00 profit less commission. So that is much better than 1.42 ( 42% profit) as opposed to 1.93( 93% profit), all we are risking differently is that the score can not be Liverpool winning with a score of 3-1, 3-0, or 3-2. And of course they have to win. Result: We get the win, and by doing the Dutch on the correct score we pick up the extra £5.00 profit, for the similar outlay. That is just one way. Horses and Dogs, are perfect to dutch.This software allows you to bet on multiple horses and dogs for a set return. Plus it will tell you if the dutch percentage is too high, and not to bet it. The first two horses in the betting (1st and 2nd fav) win over 50% of the races, so dutching these two if you can get the prices right would be a great attack plan. Once you start using this web based software you fine more ways to use it.
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